Morgan Rice

New home construction is forecast

to be on par with 2010 levels with

26,400 housing starts expected in

2011, and an increase to 29,000

housing starts in 2012. In 2011,

multiple-unit housing starts will

make up a larger share of residential

construction as home prices rise.

Resale market conditions in British

Columbia will remain balanced with

sales activity in line with underlying

fundamentals. Existing home sales are

on track to reach 80,200 transactions

in 2011. New listings have kept pace

with rising home sales, providing

homebuyers with a range of home

options. CMHC’s Renovation and

Home Purchase Survey found that

five per cent of households surveyed

intend to buy a home in 2011, slightly

higher than the national average of

four per cent.

The sales-to-new listings ratio points

to balanced market conditions and

indicates moderate price movements

during the remainder of 2011. The

provincial average home price will

increase 14 per cent this year based

on sales recorded during the first

half of 2011. Higher home prices in

some parts of the Vancouver housing

market have lifted the provincial

average price. While price movements

outside the Vancouver housing market

are forecast to be moderate, the

Vancouver board area will record

strong price growth in 2011, based on

sales during the first half of the year.

Home prices in most other housing

markets in the province are expected

to remain stable this year and next.

The MLS® average price for BC is

forecast at $576,100 in 2011 and

$564,800 in 2012.

Competition from a well-supplied

resale home market will keep singledetached

home starts below their

ten-year average level this year. Expect

9,500 single-detached homes to get

underway this year. This compares to

a forecast of 11,900 single starts in

2012.

Housing starts of condominiums,

semi-detached homes and row homes

are expected to trend higher this

year and next as builders respond to

demand for this type of home. This

home type is attractive to builders,

home buyers, and city planners

and will account for 64 per cent of

housing starts this year, up from 57

per cent in 2010. The number of

completed and unoccupied multipleunit

homes has been trending higher

but remains below levels recorded

during the 1990s. Expect multiple

housing starts to total 16,900 units in

2011 and 17,100 units in 2012.