Morgan Rice

Residential units sales through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC are forecast to increase 6 per cent to 90,100 units in 2010, before edging back 3 per cent to 87,500 units in 2011. MLS® residential unit sales sprinted from an annualized rate of 50,000 units during the first quarter of 2009 to 112,000 units during the fourth quarter. However, waning pent-up demand and eroding affordability is expected to moderate the pace of home sales going for-ward, particularly on the South Coast.

While market performance in Victo-ria, Vancouver and the Fraser Valley markets were largely responsible for pulling the provincial aggregate sig-nificantly higher last year, MLS® residential sales are expected grow more rapidly outside these major markets in 2010, as the full impact of low mortgage rates, attractive home prices and improved con-sumer confidence are just now tak-ing hold.

In 2011, BC residential sales will be constrained by higher home prices, especially on the South Coast, and rising mortgage interest rates. In addition, relatively sluggish eco-nomic and employment growth is not expected to propel household incomes high enough to offset the rising carrying cost of housing.

The average annual BC MLS® resi-dential price is forecast to climb 5 per cent to $490,900 this year, and remain relatively unchanged in 2011, albeit up 1 per cent to $494,800. Most of the increase will likely occur by the end of the first quarter this year. Home prices are expected to experience relatively less upward pressure as the year unfolds.

In Victoria, Vancouver and the Fra-ser Valley, moderating consumer demand (compared to Q4 2009) combined with a larger number of homes for sale is expected to level market conditions from a sellers’ market to a balanced market this year. Housing markets in the rest of the province are expected to ex-hibit a relative balance between buyers and sellers through the next two years.