Morgan Rice

A slowing job market and ample

housing supply in the existing home

market will contribute to fewer

housing starts this year. The housing

outlook improves in 2010 with

smaller projected declines in resale

prices, and a modest pick up in

existing home sales and housing

starts.

Buyers’ market conditions will

prevail this year. Existing home

listings are trending lower but will

remain at elevated levels providing

more choice for homebuyers. The

sales-to-new listings ratio, a leading

indicator of where home prices are

going, suggests that homebuyers will

benefit from lower prices than in

recent years. The average MLS®

The British Columbia economy will

grow at a slower pace this year as

consumers hold back on spending

and business investment wanes.

Employment growth will also slow,

following seven years of annual

increases greater than two per cent.

The economic outlook improves in

2010 as fiscal and monetary

stimulus measures take hold.

Fewer people working, with a shift

from full-time to part-time jobs, will

push up the unemployment rate and

hold back demand for

homeownership. Some serviceproducing

industries, including

health and social services, will add

jobs to meet the needs of a growing

and aging population. However, weak

demand for British Columbia

exports and new housing will

reduce the number of people

employed in goods-producing

industries, such as manufacturing,

construction and forestry.

Accelerated delivery of

infrastructure projects will add

some support to construction

employment. Employment will shift

from full-time to part-time jobs as

businesses reduce costs and remain

flexible in this challenging economic

environment. The provincial

unemployment rate will move higher,

but is forecast to remain below the

national unemployment rate.

Strong international in-migration will

keep the province’s population

growing, but population growth will

moderate. Favourable labour market

conditions, relative to other

provinces, will keep the number of

people relocating to British

Columbia close to last year’s level.

price will decline to $403,700 this

year, narrowing the price gap with

the rest of Canada. In 2010, the

average price for an existing home

will be close to the 2009 level.

Fewer homes will be started as

builders respond to reduced

housing demand and abundant

supply. Starts for all home types,

including single-detached, apartment

condominiums, row and

townhouses, will be lower in 2009.

Foundations will be poured for

about 6,500 single-detached homes

this year.

Multiple-unit starts will drop to

13,300 units in 2009, as builders

focus on smaller phased projects.

Rising inventories of completed and

unoccupied units will delay or hold

back construction of larger multipleunit

developments. Some new rental

will be built in Kelowna and

Vancouver, but will account for a

very small fraction of multiple-unit

starts. Rental vacancy rates in British

Columbia are among the lowest in

Canada but high land and

construction costs are a challenge

for new rental projects.

Housing starts will pick up next year

as economic and labour market

conditions improve and the

inventory of homes for sale is

reduced. However, starts will remain

below the ten-year average level.